Leonardo DiCaprio, Teyana Taylor, Emma Stone, “Sinners,” and “Wicked: For Good” are among the top contenders of the season.

2026 Oscar predictions: Who will be nominated at the 98th Academy Awards?

Leonardo DiCaprio, Teyana Taylor, Emma Stone, "Sinners," and "Wicked: For Good" are among the top contenders of the season.

Joey Nolfi is a senior writer at *. *Since 2016, his work at EW includes *RuPaul's Drag Race* video interviews, Oscars predictions, and more.

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on January 8, 2026 4:45 p.m. ET

Cynthia Erivo in 'Wicked: For Good' and Leonardo DiCaprio in 'One Battle After Another'. Credit:

Universal Pictures; Warner Bros. Pictures

Awards season sometimes feels like... well... one battle after another when it comes to gauging top contenders in the race.

This year, however, major players in the hunt for Oscars have sprung up in pole position at a remarkably early stage, with long-overdue, 11-time nominee Paul Thomas Anderson's latest widely expected to put an end to his lengthy losing streak at the Academy Awards.

But, as last year's Best Actress race between longtime frontrunner Demi Moore and eventual winner Mikey Madison proved, the Oscars race is a fluid, ever-changing entity with more plot twists than Yorgos Lanthimos' *Bugonia*.**

2025-2026 awards season calendar: See key dates for Oscars, Grammys, more

2026 Golden Globes nominations: See the full list of nominees

When it comes to gauging who will be nominated at the 2026 Oscars, **'s awards expertise has you covered, with a full set of Oscar predictions in each of the major categories, from Best Picture to the acting races.

***Check out more from EW's *The Awardist*, featuring exclusive interviews, analysis, and our podcast diving into all the highlights from the year's best in TV, movies, and more.***

As this year's contest rages on, find out who we think will be nominated in EW's 2026 Oscar predictions below, updating as often as the race changes in the weeks ahead.

Leonardo DiCaprio and Benicio Del Toro in 'One Battle After Another'.

Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures

Best Picture

Call it a boring Best Picture race if you *must*, but the industry is — and will continue to be — endlessly enamored by Anderson's latest. If momentum holds for the legendary filmmaker's timely thriller, we're looking at a monolithic contender that could end up as the most-winning Best Picture victor in recent memory.

Enthusiasm for *One Battle After Another* appears to be strongest with actors, directors, and producers, meaning it could "stack" its way to a Best Picture victory by appealing to the most influential branches in the Academy. Starting with the actors, *Battle* has, in theory, around six major stars who could find a path into the acting categories, with Regina Hall being the most vulnerable. However, the hold the cast currently seems to have in the Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Best Actress (Chase Infiniti), Best Supporting Actor (Benicio Del Toro, Sean Penn), and Best Supporting Actress (Teyana Taylor) categories is a testament to the film's emotional core, which will drive support in the long run. It already catapulted to a record among the SAG — uh, *Actor* Awards — nominations, where it scored a nomination in all seven film categories, including for stunts. That's no small feat, and indicates perhaps the most consistent support we've ever seen for a movie among the industry's largest voting union.

Not far behind it, though, is Chloé Zhao's *Hamnet*, the director's prestige follow-up (sorry, *Eternals*) to *Nomadland *that's already generated significant buzz thanks to Jessie Buckley's lead performance, Paul Mescal's supporting turn, and the film's historic dressings (it will build support across technical categories, too).

*Sentimental Value* and *It Was Just an Accident* will additionally continue the recent Cannes-initiated trend of high-brow global dramas hitting big with the Academy's increasingly international votership (*Cold War*, *Parasite*, *Another Round*, *Triangle of Sadness*, *Anatomy of a Fall*, etc.), but *Sentimental Value *was dealt several unexpected blows from the industry guilds, as its cast was completely shut out of the Actor Awards nominations (despite as many as four solo performers having solid footing in the race at large), and the film didn't show up among the Directors Guild of America nominations, either.

*Sinners* has risen in both films' places, however, occupying a key spot as a runaway box office smash with star power, critical support, commercial success, and major above-the-line Golden Globe nominations (and a surprise additional Actor Awards nod for Miles Caton), bolstering its solid place in the 2026 race.

The remaining slots feel open to some degree, with Timothée Chalamet's *Marty Supreme*, Guillermo del Toro's *Frankenstein*, and *Bugonia* jockeying for slots as well (we previously saw *Bugonia* dropping on some predictions lists... discounting a Lanthimos-Emma Stone project is always risky, and the film has since bounced back). *Wicked: For Good *once felt like a sure thing, but divisive reviews and dwindling awards support (and a lack of nominations for Cynthia Erivo at the Critics Choice and Actor Awards) feel like a misfortune the film won't be able to recover from overall.

The box office strength of *Avatar: Fire and Ash *will take its place, with the 10th spot a total wildcard that could go to anything, from the aforementioned *Wicked* sequel to more prestigious dramas like *Train Dreams *or* No Other Choice.*

- *One Battle After Another*

- *Frankenstein***

- *Sentimental Value***

- *Marty Supreme*

- *It Was Just an Accident ***

- *Avatar: Fire and Ash*

- *Train Dreams*

**In the hunt: ***Wicked: For Good; Jay Kelly*;* F1*; *The Secret Agent; No Other Choice***

Teyana Taylor and Leonardo DiCaprio in 'One Battle After Another'.

Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures

Best Director

It's hard to believe that *Boogie Nights*, *Magnolia*, *Punch-Drunk Love*, *There Will Be Blood*, and *The Master* helmer has never won an Oscar, but his 11 career nominations stand as a testament to his enduring popularity.

Though he's Oscar-less, Paul Thomas Anderson has won Best Director at Cannes, the Silver Lion in Venice, and the Golden Bear in Berlin, meaning his reach is, at this point, far and wide, in every corner of the globe. He aims to finally cement that affection for his work with America's foremost film award, and all signs point to his most recent work steamrolling the competition (including his recent DGA nod for *Battle*).

While *One Battle After Another* has, at this point, seemingly won the campaign war for Best Picture, Best Director feels more vulnerable. Jafar Panahi has earned similarly passionate praise for *It Was Just an Accident* out of Cannes, while Ryan Coogler could court votes for helming an original story to massive commercial success at the global box office with *Sinners*.

*Marty Supreme*'s Josh Safdie showed up as a surprise nominee within the DGA set (likely in a spot that would've otherwise gone to *Sentimental Value*'s Joachim Trier), but don't expect him to repeat at the Oscars, where international votes will push either Panahi or Trier into the fifth slot.

Though it weathered lower-than-expected initial reactions out of the fall film festivals, Guillermo del Toro's *Frankenstein* seems to be on the rise as well, with del Toro securing much-needed support from the DGA at just the right time, too.**

- Paul Thomas Anderson, *One Battle After Another*

- Ryan Coogler, *Sinners*

- Chloé Zhao, *Hamnet*

- Guillermo del Toro, *Frankenstein*

- Jafar Panahi, *It Was Just an Accident*

**In the hunt: **Joachim Trier,* Sentimental Value*; Yorgos Lanthimos, *Bugonia*; Josh Safdie, *Marty Supreme*

Leonardo DiCaprio in 'One Battle After Another'.

Let's get this out of the way now: We're not using *Killers of the Flower Moon* to gauge DiCaprio's standing in the current Best Actor race. While he missed out on a nod for Martin Scorsese's three-hour 2023 drama, it was a crowded year with far less assured chances.

His performance (along with those of Infiniti and Taylor) are the pumping heart of *One Battle After Another*, and he's positioned at the head of a middling race with an uncertain roster at this stage.

*Marty Supreme*'s Chalamet also feels safely squared away here (once again) as Hollywood's reigning golden boy, and his victory at the Critics Choice Awards (coupled with healthy box office over the Christmas frame, and another Actor Award nod) marked a one-two-three punch of high points for his campaign so far.

The remaining slots likely belong to mainstay contenders like Wagner Moura (*The Secret Agent*) and *Sinners*' Michael B. Jordan (playing dual roles, mind you) in well-received projects, with Moura likely squeezing in thanks to the Academy's increasingly international membership.

*Bugnoia*'s Jesse Plemons has also popped up in more places in recent weeks (including at the Golden Globes and the Actor Awards), putting him statistically ahead of Moura for the time being.

- Leonardo DiCaprio, *One Battle After Another*

- Timothée Chalamet, *Marty Supreme*

- Michael B. Jordan, *Sinners***

- Jesse Plemons, *Bugonia*

- Wagner Moura, *The Secret Agent*

**In the hunt:** Joel Edgerton, *Train Dreams*;* *George Clooney, *Jay Kelly*; Ethan Hawke, *Blue Moon*; Vahid Mobasseri, *It Was Just an Accident*; Dwayne Johnson, *The Smashing Machine*

Jessie Buckley in 'Hamnet'.

Agata Grzybowska / © 2025 FOCUS FEATURES LLC

Best Actress

Just like last year, Best Actress is shaping up to be another two-woman race throughout the remainder of the season. For now, *Hamnet*'s Buckley is out front, with her emotionally charged performance in Zhao's drama earning the best reviews of the actress' career. On paper, she's got a buzzy trail ahead of her, too, with her heavily anticipated reunion with *Lost Daughter *helmer Maggie Gyllenhaal (the bonkers-looking *The Bride*) set to drop March 6, with a press cycle likely coinciding with Buckley's Oscar bid.

Renate Reinsve appeared, at one point, to be hot on her tail, and will surely court international voters after she burst onto the scene with her standout performance in the phenomenal *Worst Person in the World* — also directed by *Sentimental Value*'s Trier. But, with none of the cast showing up among the Actor Awards nominations, Reinsve's bid looks more vulnerable than ever, and she's tumbled significantly since the start of the race.

Regardless of how its box office numbers fare in comparison to the 2024 edition, *Wicked: For Good *again boosted Cynthia Erivo into the Best Actress conversation, with her performance in the end of the two-part musical opus hailed as another towering achievement, but she's missed too many precursors (Critics Choice, Actor Awards) to remain a steadfast contender.

Infiniti also feels like the "ingenue" of the year, much the way Madison ended the race last year, and it's unwise to discount Stone's unrelenting power in the Oscar race — especially in a film like *Bugonia*, her re-teaming with Lanthimos after they found success with *The Favourite *and *Poor Things*. The trick will be getting awards voters to sit through the admittedly oddball film. If they do, however, consider Stone a contender — and, by all means so far, voters have done just that, as she earned both Golden Globes and Actor Awards nominations for the film.

While Infiniti has the momentum of a major Best Picture contender fueling her bid for a category slot, Rose Byrne, who's shown up with victories and/or nominations from critics groups and the Golden Globes alike, is shaping up to be the critical darling of the season. Though we imagine that sitting through *If I Had Legs I'd Kick You *will be a true test of patience for a majority of Academy members, she's shown up in too many places to discount, but Infiniti's standing in a much more accessible film will boost her into the category while pushing Erivo out, in the end.

Either way, Buckley beat them both at the Critics Choice Awards, meaning she made major headway in terms of visibility during a televised awards show before the Oscar nominations reveal.

- Jessie Buckley, *Hamnet*

- Emma Stone, *Bugonia*

- Chase Infiniti, *One Battle After Another*

- Renate Reinsve, *Sentimental Value*

- Rose Byrne,* If I Had Legs I'd Kick You*

**In the hunt: **Cynthia Erivo, *Wicked: For Good*;* *Amanda Seyfried, *The Testament of Ann Lee*; Jennifer Lawrence, *Die My Love*; Kate Hudson, *Song Sung Blue*

Sean Penn in 'One Battle After Another'.

Best Supporting Actor

Sean Penn kicked up the intensity with his work in *One Battle After Another*, and audiences took note. His bold role as a military officer might rub some the wrong way on character alone, but there's no denying how the industry will receive such a brash performance. Supporting contenders often succeed with more in-your-face work (just look at last year's Best Supporting Actress winner, Zoe Saldaña for *Emilia Pérez*), and Penn's transformative work here could lead to his first victory in 16 years.

Stellan Skarsgård also feels like a safe choice given his well-received turn in *Sentimental Value*, as does Mescal for his hefty supporting turn in *Hamnet.* The remaining slots are a toss-up in an open field, with the increasingly powerful profile of *Challengers* actor Josh O'Connor bolstering his bid for *Wake Up Dead Man,* which contains arguably his best work to date.

Del Toro also joined the race as a consistent *Battle *contender*,* but it's Jacob Elordi's work in *Frankenstein* that, while not technically the best of any of the aforementioned names, is physically transformative enough to catch voters' attention — just as it did at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards, the first major televised presentation of the season.

- Sean Penn, *One Battle After Another*

- Jacob Elordi, *Frankenstein*

- Benicio del Toro, *One Battle After Another*

- Stellan Skarsgård, *Sentimental Value*

- Paul Mescal, *Hamnet*

**In the hunt:** Miles Caton, *Sinners*; Delroy Lindo, *Sinners*; Jacobi Jupe, *Hamnet*; William H. Macy,* Train Dreams*; Adam Sandler, *Jay Kelly*

Teyana Taylor in 'One Battle After Another'.

Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Madigan came locked and loaded into the Best Supporting Actress race, with *Weapons* registering as a runaway hit with a cultural impact strong enough to catapult her into the Oscars contest.

Whether she'll maintain that throughout the season remains to be seen. She'll need to capitalize on the strong, sustained support from both critics groups and precursor bodies (she won at the Critics Choice Awards and earned an Actor Award nod — great signs) to stay afloat, as her work in the film is memorable, but not as showy as one might expect upon first glance. She's got the element of wild transformation on her side, but the performance lacks the kind of prestige appeal necessary to win over the snootier, international voting body of the acting branch. And, while not outright horror in nature, many might dismiss the film as simply a genre picture in general, and refuse to watch it in the first place.

That said, there's still a chance she could sneak in, but this category is packed with potential players who also appear in this year's likely Best Picture contenders. That kind of weight will help recognizable names like prior winner Paltrow (*Marty Supreme*) and Elle Fanning (*Sentimental Value*) succeed on early ballots, but they already fizzled out by the time the Actor Awards announced their nominations in early January.

Support for *Sinners* is also likely to be strong in the coming weeks, with Wunmi Mosaku's incredible performance in the film potentially registering as strong enough (and her part meaty enough) to overcome the same kind of genre bias that might hold someone like Madigan back, and it proved to do just as much when she wound up among the Actor Awards nominees.

But, at this phase, the race seems to be Taylor's to lose. With another high-profile performance in Ryan Murphy's *All's Fair* hitting in the lead-up to key voting periods, Taylor's face (and acting prowess) will be hard to ignore this year — especially in such a strong Best Picture contender like *One Battle After Another*.

While *Wicked: For Good *isn't faring as well as the first film did with critics, pop star Ariana Grande's scene-stealing performance has broken through the division and has emerged as the only real threat to Taylor's standing thus far.

- Teyana Taylor, *One Battle After Another*

- Ariana Grande, *Wicked: For Good*

- Wunmi Mosaku, *Sinners*

- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas,* Sentimental Value*

- Odessa A'zion, *Marty Supreme***

**In the hunt:** Amy Madigan, *Weapons*; Gwyneth Paltrow, *Marty Supreme*; Regina Hall, *One Battle After Another*;* *Elle Fanning, *Sentimental Value*

Original Article on Source

Source: “EW Movies”